All,
I think it is also important when discussing the concept of herd immunity that such a strategy is, to my understanding, usually reliant on total immunity once someone has been infected and recovered. While there is still only early information
on the phenomenon, it has been demonstrated that individuals can be reinfected (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30764-7/fulltext).
Not only was this individual infected twice, the second infection proved to be more severe than the first. While N = 1 isn't good enough to draw conclusions, to me it does raise some very serious concerns regarding herd immunity-based strategies. Monona, Rob,
et al. have expressed the other concerns I have better than I could, and I'm no epidemiologist anyway, so I'll leave it at that.
Sincerely,
Jack Reidy (he/him)
Research Safety Specialist, Assistant Chemical Hygiene Officer
Environmental Health & Safety
Stanford University
484 Oak Road, Stanford, CA, 94305
Tel: (650) 497-7614
From: ACS Division of Chemical Health and Safety <DCHAS-L**At_Symbol_Here**Princeton.EDU>
On Behalf Of ILPI Support
Sent: Tuesday, October 13, 2020 12:11 PM
To: DCHAS-L**At_Symbol_Here**Princeton.EDU
Subject: Re: [DCHAS-L] Melbourne, Victoria, AU - Facial Coverings
I will respectfully but very forcefully disagree.
Rob Toreki
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Suggesting 500,000 to 2,100,000 additional deaths is wild speculation.
Let me tell you about Disney. I was there for a week in March (March 1-7) just 2 days before the Governor force them to close. The park was at capacity each and every day. We had to park in the overflow lots each day. I was there with
my son and his family (granddaughter) and her other grandparents. People in line were within inches of each other for each and every day. People at the park were from all parts of the World including Europe. There were hand rails and safety rails and guard
rails in rides that we touched by everyone without cleaning. Most rides were also at capacity and people flowed in and out without cleaning. There were a very large number of kids including my granddaughter all running around (as would be expected). The
restaurants were jammed. All the rides were jammed even with the special passes. No one had masks. No hand sanitizer. No mass of infections (as far as I know). Maybe all 50,000 of us were just lucky. I don't think so.
One last point that everyone knows that has dealt with taking a young child there. Many of the venues that were available were inside of buildings and again, very cramped quarters.
I think it is unethical to advocate herd immunity because it would mean 500,000-2,100,000 preventable deaths in the U.S.
As safety professionals and human beings, we should support the use of simple safety measures (masks, distancing) to prevent even one death. That's ethics 101.
Regarding Disney World, being outdoors is a terrific mitigation measure for aerosol transmission. Winter will be challenge because we are indoors and the relative humidity is lower.
I had a discussion with a friend who believes masks don't stop the spread and that full-on herd immunity is the way to go. He pointed out the lack of super spreading at Disney World as an example of concerns being overblown: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/09/business/disney-world-coronavirus.html (although
there are some accusations of coverup and concerns about lack of contract tracing to people's home states).
When I looked into the Disney thing further, I was rather astonished: https://www.disneytouristblog.com/faq-guide-face-masks-disney-world/ Disney
has really tough mask rules with really high compliance. In other words, my friend's example strongly supported my contentions about mask usage, not his. But he didn't want to discuss it after I pointed this out.
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I think there are differences of opinion on how to best achieve heard immunity. Some think it's best to do so by vaccination and, in the meantime, we all hide from the virus. Some think it's best to expose those who are most likely to survive
the virus, and hide those who are most likely to die from it.
These are simply two schools of thought. We should refrain from accusing each "camp" of being unethical or uncaring.. Those types of accusations keep us from having an honest discussion.
This pattern of behavior has taken hold of our society. It has given birth to the "silent majority". It needs to stop.
It is interesting to reflect on how our actions affect others and, perhaps, ourselves? Remember that ethics is concerned with our correct behavior in a structured society. And
isn't it a prime directive of safety culture to ensure that others don't get hurt?
Ernie Lippert
I wasn't going to wade into this, but since we are getting into various analogies.
Seat belts protect more than the individual. They protect EMS workers who won't have to experience the PTSD trauma of unnecessarily scraping someone's brain off the pavement.
They protect my insurance rates so that someone who is ejected from their vehicle doesn't end up needing millions of dollars of medical and rehabilitative care. They protect family members who won't lose their breadwinner or have to declare bankruptcy to
pay their medical bills.
Here are two more analogies:
1. I'm a good driver. I haven't had an at-fault accident. In theory (unless I live in a no-fault state), I don't need auto insurance because my risk of an at-fault accident is
very low and if I did cause one I have financial resources to cover the damage to another car or person. However, the state (or State, depending on your worldview, I suppose) says I must have insurance in order to operate a motor vehicle on public roads.
Why? To protect the other driver if I do cause an accident. By happenstance, that same government-mandated protection also covers/protects me.
2. I am amused by the small but vocal cadre who see modest mask requirements as a totalitarian abomination and at the same time fervently support leaders who call the press the
enemy of the people, disparage and dismiss science, deliberately sow false distrust of our election system, and refuse to commit to a peaceful transfer of power. It's like worrying about a hangnail when you have a compound fracture of the femur and are hours
away from the nearest hospital.
It's a frickin' piece of cloth, not a diving helmet or spiked chastity belt. Tens of millions of workers across the world wear masks all day long (medical, industrial, construction).
It's trivial and if everyone did it for a couple weeks most of this goes away. Two words: New Zealand. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54260925
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Just my thoughts on this, not here to debate. I respect you all have your own opinions.
The first line of your response Monona defines the problem with this whole mask endeavor (..for my own good). As someone who has spent a career specifying personal protective
equipment, I cannot follow the concept of PPE that must be worn by one individual to protect someone else. By definition, it is "personal" protection. I think most people are more than willing to do something for "their own good." If I am concerned about getting
exposed to an airborne contaminant, I can wear an N100 respirator and at least feel like I am doing something to protect myself. However, wearing a surgical mask or whatever, is not for my own good. It is supposedly to protect everyone else, which I don't
recall being my responsibility (except in a professional capacity). Last I saw, many jurisdictions don't want you to protect yourself by wearing a real respirator with an exhalation valve as you then become a "threat" to others. (So protecting self is bad,
protecting others is your duty).
Wearing a seat belt protects me. Forcing you to wear one to protect me does not, nor does it make sense. Not the same, but you see my point. This virus is not a plague. People
in high risk groups SHOULD protect themselves using appropriate measures. I am not clear at all on the logic of how responsibility became transferred from protecting yourself (especially the vulnerable) to requiring all other individuals to submit to doing
something undesirable/uncomfortable to theoretically protect other people, relying on the possibility that it may have some positive effect on preventing the spread of a 95-99 % survivable influenza. Not a strong driver here..
I do disagree with your statement that by not wearing a mask people are assaulting others. Normal life does not involve wearing a mask. Never has. Living life in fear of a largely
survivable disease is unnecessary, and better protection is available for those who need it. I have more faith in our immune system than govts do.
Ray Cook, MS, CIH 2000-2016
If big brother is sane and asking for me to do things for my own good, I have no problem. And actually, the Oz big brother is only a threat to people who aren't doing what good
practice and common sense dictates. Claiming the right to harm others by imprudent behavior in this pandemic is not freedom, it's assault.
I think the problem is you might think the masks that the Australians are talking about need fit testing. That's not what they mean. They just mean that they fit tight to the
face leaving no obvious gaps. So surgical masks and well-made cloth masks are fine. And they include direction for making a good mask.
They also require it cover both the nose and the mouth. I'd like to see the Oz Big Brother working over here -- maybe right in my neighborhood..
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